The U.S. retail industry is $4.897 trillion in 2020, down 10.5% year-on-year

It may take years for the U.S. retail industry to recover from the impact of the epidemic, and it may be hit harder than the Great Recession. According to eMarketer's latest forecast for U.S. retail sales, including automobiles and fuel, total retail sales will fall 10.5% this year, a sharper drop than the 8.2% drop in 2009. E-commerce is the only bright spot, up 18.0% so far this year as Americans rely on Amazon and other online retailers to buy necessities.

Total retail sales

In 2020, total retail sales will fall 10.5% to $4.897 trillion, the highest level since 2016. These estimates assume that widespread quarantine measures (which have been gradually eased in May) will continue to relax and economic activity will slowly resume in the third quarter. However, consumer spending is likely to remain suppressed throughout the year. Total retail sales will not return to 2019 levels until 2022, and estimates will remain lower than previously forecast throughout the forecast period.