亚马逊森林蝴蝶效应故事是虚拟的比喻。
一只蝴蝶在南美洲亚马逊河流域热带雨林中轻轻扇动几下翅膀,就可能在美国得克萨斯州刮起一场飓风。这就是有名的“蝴蝶效应”。
蝴蝶效应(The Butterfly Effect)是指在一个动力系统中,初始条件下微小的变化能带动整个系统的长期的巨大的连锁反应。这是一种混沌现象。任何事物发展均存在定数与变数,事物在发展过程中其发展轨迹有规律可循,同时也存在不可测的“变数”,往往还会适得其反,一个微小的变化能影响事物的发展,说明事物的发展具有复杂性。
美国气象学家爱德华·洛伦兹(Edward N.Lorenz)于1963年,在一篇提交纽约科学院的论文中分析了这个效应。
The Amazon Forest Butterfly Effect story is a fictitious metaphor.
A butterfly gently flaps its wings in the tropical rainforest of the Amazon River Basin in South America, and it may cause a hurricane in Texas, USA. This is the famous "butterfly effect".
The Butterfly Effect refers to the fact that in a dynamic system, a small change in the initial conditions can drive a long-term huge chain reaction of the entire system. This is a chaotic phenomenon. There are constants and variables in the development of any thing. In the process of development, the development trajectory of things has regularities to follow, but there are also unpredictable "variables", which often backfire. A small change can affect the development of things, which shows that the development of things is complex.
In 1963, American meteorologist Edward N. Lorenz analyzed this effect in a paper submitted to the New York Academy of Sciences.