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What is the market value of WeChat?

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按照去年阿里巴巴入股新浪微博的案例来看,阿里巴巴通过其全资子公司,以5.86亿美元收购新浪微博公司发行的优先股和普通股,占18%股份。

如此看来,新浪微博的价值约为32.5亿美元。曹国伟曾表示新浪微博注册用户达到5亿,在僵尸粉遍地的新浪微博,这个数字明显是有水分。CNNIC的调查数据表明,手机微博用户数为1.96亿,考虑到目前手机微博是主流,新浪微博实际用户数应该在2亿多。而微信用户数应该超过了5亿,是新浪微博的2倍还要多,仅从这个角度来看,微信的价值至少为80亿美元。另一方面,微信在月活跃用户,用户粘性和商业前景上比新浪微博更具有优势,因而80亿美元对比估值是最低限度。

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According to the case of Alibaba's investment in Sina Weibo last year, Alibaba, through its wholly-owned subsidiary, acquired preferred shares and common shares issued by Sina Weibo for US$586 million, accounting for 18% of the shares.

In this way, the value of Sina Weibo is about US$3.25 billion. Cao Guowei once said that Sina Weibo has 500 million registered users. In Sina Weibo, where zombie fans are everywhere, this number is obviously inflated. CNNIC's survey data shows that the number of mobile Weibo users is 196 million. Considering that mobile Weibo is currently the mainstream, the actual number of Sina Weibo users should be more than 200 million. The number of WeChat users should exceed 500 million, which is more than twice that of Sina Weibo. From this perspective alone, WeChat is worth at least US$8 billion. On the other hand, WeChat has more advantages than Sina Weibo in terms of monthly active users, user stickiness and business prospects, so the comparison valuation of US$8 billion is the minimum.

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