Estimation of Douyin’s advertising revenue: 26 million per day, 9.5 billion per year

As the growth of users gradually slows down, Douyin has begun to accelerate its pace of monetization. Like Toutiao, Douyin’s commercialization will gradually rely on information flow advertising.

Information flow advertising is currently the main source of Douyin’s revenue. This article will estimate the contribution of this main business and make future sensitivity analysis.

1. Calculation of Douyin’s information flow advertising revenue: Annual revenue of about 9.5 billion

General calculation idea: Short video information flow advertising revenue = DAU×average daily usage time of users×number of short video plays per minute×short video advertising loading rate×CPM×365

DAU: daily active users. According to the data disclosed by iResearch Mobile APP Index, the number of monthly independent devices in September was 272 million, corresponding to the corresponding monthly active situation.

The average daily usage time of Douyin users is between 25 and 30 minutes. (The usage time of Kuaishou is about 60 to 70 minutes)

Number of short video plays per minute: Since Douyin is positioned as a 15-second music video, some users record about 8 to 10 seconds; another part of users with more than a certain number of fans can record a 30-second short video. Based on this, take the approximate number and play four short videos in one minute.

The main part of Douyin's income - information flow advertising income, may reach an annual income of 40 to 50 billion yuan in three to five years. In comparison, the current income of Kuaishou is already 20 billion yuan per year, and it is expected to reach 50 to 60 billion yuan in three to five years. (Of course, in terms of business model, Kuaishou mainly relies on live broadcast rewards, while Douyin mainly relies on information flow

advertising)

This means that Douyin and Kuaishou will eat up the 100 billion digital advertising cake in the next few years. It is definitely not enough to rely solely on the growth of overall digital advertising.

Someone must lose. Who will it be?

Perhaps Baidu, Weibo, or Tencent...